The report “Central Asia in the Energy Transition” by Svante E. Cornell and Brenda Shaffer provides a comprehensive analysis of Central Asia’s role in global energy dynamics amidst significant changes. This study examines key aspects, including the future of oil and gas, uranium as a strategic resource, issues and prospects of energy transportation, and the potential of renewable energy development.
The Role of Oil and Gas in Global Energy Policy
Central Asia has long held a significant position in global energy markets due to its vast oil and gas reserves. Kazakhstan remains a key oil exporter, while Turkmenistan possesses the fourth-largest natural gas reserves globally. However, shifts in European energy policy, aimed at reducing dependence on Russian energy resources, open new opportunities for the region.
The authors emphasize that the European Union continues to rely on oil and gas imports despite its efforts to transition to renewable energy. Policies restricting fossil fuel production in Western countries further increase demand for Central Asia’s resources. However, logistical challenges and the absence of long-term supply contracts remain critical obstacles.
Gasification as a Tool for Improving Quality of Life
The report highlights the growing domestic demand for energy resources in Central Asian countries. Natural gas can play a pivotal role in replacing coal and biomass, which are still widely used for heating in the region. For example:
• Approximately 30% of households in Kazakhstan rely on coal or wood.
• In Kyrgyzstan, up to 50% of the population uses coal and biomass for heating.
According to the researchers, increased natural gas use would reduce air pollution, improve public health, and lower carbon emissions.
Uranium as a Strategic Resource
Kazakhstan has emerged as the global leader in uranium production, accounting for over 40% of worldwide output. Uzbekistan and Mongolia also possess significant reserves. The report underscores the growing demand for uranium driven by the resurgence of interest in nuclear energy in Europe.
Special attention is given to France’s active engagement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in uranium mining. Kazakhstan, in turn, aims to expand its role in the nuclear supply chain, including the establishment of uranium conversion facilities.
However, geopolitical risks linked to reliance on Russia and China in the nuclear sector necessitate strengthened partnerships with Western countries.
Logistics and Energy Resource Transportation
The transportation of oil, gas, and uranium remains a critical challenge for the region. Kazakhstan has already started utilizing the Trans-Caspian route for uranium exports, reducing its dependency on Russian transit routes. However, large-scale oil and gas exports require substantial investments in infrastructure.
The authors note the crucial role of Turkey in developing the Trans-Caspian corridor, which could significantly enhance Central Asia’s logistics over the next decade.
Potential of Renewable Energy
Central Asia holds vast potential for developing solar and wind energy. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan have signed agreements to create a “green energy corridor” that will facilitate electricity exports to Europe. However, significant obstacles remain:
• Outdated power grid infrastructure.
• Limited domestic resources to meet the growing electricity demand.
• Lack of transparency in deals with foreign investors.
The authors emphasize that modernizing infrastructure and improving regulatory frameworks will be essential for success.
Conclusion
The analysis by Cornell and Shaffer demonstrates that Central Asia remains a vital player in the global energy system. Despite challenges related to transportation and infrastructure, the region has significant opportunities to strengthen its position.
For Central Asian countries, it is crucial not only to maintain their role as exporters of oil, gas, and uranium but also to actively develop domestic energy markets. Investments in renewable energy, modernization of infrastructure, and strengthening international partnerships with Europe and the United States will enable the region to sustain its strategic importance in the long term.
The full version of the report “Central Asia in the Energy Transition” is available in the attached file.