Youth of Central Asia: Demographic Potential Amid Authoritarianism and External Pressures

Central Asia, home to approximately 82 million people, is a region with unique demographic potential. Youth under the age of 35 comprise about 65–70% of the population, equating to 52.7–56.8 million people. This human capital could serve as a foundation for sustainable development in the region. However, the influence of authoritarian regimes and external players, such as Russia and China, significantly hampers the realization of this potential.

Demographic Structure: Youth as a Catalyst for Change

As of January 1, 2024, the population distribution across Central Asian countries is as follows:
• Kazakhstan: 20,033,546 people. Youth under 35 constitute approximately 60–65% (over 12 million people).
• Uzbekistan: 36,799,728 people. Youth under 35 make up 65–70% (about 24 million people).
• Tajikistan: 10,077,600 people. The highest proportion of youth—70–75% (7–7.5 million people).
• Kyrgyzstan: 7,161,900 people. Youth account for 65–70% (about 4.5–5 million people).
• Turkmenistan: 7,057,841 people. Youth under 35 constitute 65–70% (approximately 4.5–5 million people).

The region boasts one of the highest proportions of youth in the world. However, this potential faces challenges related to authoritarian governance, economic instability, and external dependencies.

Authoritarianism as a Barrier to Development

The political systems of Central Asian countries are characterized by a concentration of power within a narrow elite circle. Authoritarianism stifles youth initiative, obstructs democratic reforms, and exacerbates social inequality.
1. Suppression of Civil Liberties
Young activists, journalists, and opposition leaders face repression for any criticism of the authorities. This suppresses civic engagement and erodes faith in change.
2. Corruption and Inequality
Authoritarian governments prioritize power preservation over equitable societal development. As a result, youth lack access to quality education, healthcare, and professional growth opportunities.
3. Brain Drain
For many, migration appears to be the only pathway to a better life, depriving the region of skilled professionals and weakening its economy.

The Role of External Players: Russia and China

Authoritarian regimes in Central Asia receive external support, which strengthens their position and reduces the likelihood of democratic transformations.

Russia
• Economic and Military Dependence: Russia maintains influence through labor migration and military bases (e.g., in Tajikistan).
• Propaganda: Russian media disseminate anti-Western sentiments and reinforce authoritarian narratives.
• Support for Elites: Moscow bolsters ruling elites, hindering democratic reforms.

China
• Debt Dependence: Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China provides loans that deepen financial dependence.
• Repressive Technologies: China exports digital surveillance technologies, enhancing state control over society.
• Resource Exploitation: China gains access to the region’s strategic resources, limiting opportunities for independent economic growth.

Religious Identity: Opportunity or Tool of Oppression?

Islamic culture is a significant part of the region’s identity. The proportion of Muslims in the population is:
• Kazakhstan: 70%
• Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan: 96–98%
• Kyrgyzstan: ~90%

However, authoritarian regimes often exploit religion to maintain control, restricting freedom of worship and suppressing independent religious organizations. This exacerbates tensions and fosters conditions for radicalization, particularly among youth with limited opportunities for self-realization.

Challenges for Central Asian Youth
1. Social Marginalization
Youth face limited access to education, employment, and resources.
2. Risk of Radicalization
The inability to meet basic needs makes youth vulnerable to extremist ideologies.
3. Loss of Perspective
Systematic repression and the absence of transparent social mobility suppress hope for a better future.

Path to Change: Recommendations

To harness the region’s demographic potential, systemic changes are needed:
1. Democratic Reforms
Strengthen civic institutions and expand opportunities for youth participation in politics.
2. Economic Independence
Diversify economies, reduce dependency on Russia and China, and develop high-tech industries.
3. Investment in Education
Prioritize modern education and employment programs in all countries of the region.
4. International Partnerships
Build stronger ties with democratic nations to support reforms and human rights protections.

Central Asia possesses immense demographic potential, but systemic authoritarianism and external pressures hinder its full realization. The region’s youth could become a driving force for change if provided with opportunities for empowerment. The struggle for democracy, the rule of law, and equality must be prioritized by all who are invested in Central Asia’s future.

Foundation for the Defence of Democracy in Central Asia

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